June 2026 precious metals roundup
Written by Luke Heritage
3rd July, 2026
June proved to be a bad month for precious metals, with a decline of around 12% for gold from $4540.71 to $4015.51 an ounce, almost to the $4000 level. Silver fared even worse with a 23% loss from $75.59 to $58.43 an ounce, marking some of the worst monthly performances for both metals in years. In short, this month seems to be a full-blown correction after spring, with silver, the more volatile metal, hit harder exactly as expected when interest rate confusion sweeps through the market.
What was moving gold?
The main story of June involves the US Federal Reserve with markets pricing in rate cuts later in the year, reversed within the third week after 16/06 when the narrative flipped entirely with traders pricing in the possibility of rate hikes, pushing the dollar higher and thus reducing the price of gold. The stronger dollar paired with hopes of a Middle East peace deal was always going to be an unfavourable combination for gold to face. It is worth noting, however, that gold did not set any new lows of real significance, with this month being a grind and not a crash.
From a demand and supply perspective, this edition is being written in early July, with the World Gold Council's Q2 Demand Trend reports (which include central bank buying and gold ETF inflows and outflows) not due till late July. However, the most recent official central-bank number on the board is 244 tonnes in Q1 2026, which would explain gold's resilience in not breaking $4000 an ounce, and if this holds or is increased through Q2, we could see a more bullish outlook after June. On investment demand, financial press points to huge outflows in gold ETFs consistent with the hawkish Fed repricing explained above, with the full report expected later this week. On the supply side, there is nothing June-specific to add either, just that Q1's report showing supply keeping up with demand.
What was moving silver?
As the more industrially linked metal of the two I discuss, silver tends to amplify whatever gold is doing, breaking the $60 an ounce price floor for the first time since December 2025. With the rate cuts speculation and the dollar rallying, silver fell much harder than gold due to a much smaller percentage of its demand used for safe-haven flows compared to gold.
Much of silver's movements were due to the same reasons as gold, but what is structurally different between gold and silver is the supply side, with the Silver Institute's 2026 forecast pointing to a sixth consecutive annual global deficit of 46.3mn ounces, with total 2026 supply expected to fall around 2%. However, this reduction in supply was obviously not reflected in the price, with market sentiment based on macroeconomic events proving to be more decisive on the price.
What is there to look out for next month?
Personally I see three things that stand out as we head into July. Firstly, the Fed's meeting calendar and any further US data could confirm or unwind the speculation around interest rate hikes, with a dovish surprise probably being enough to drive the metals back up. Next, the Middle East ceasefire and peace deal situation is certainly fragile, and any major headlines involving Trump, Iran or the Strait of Hormuz are likely to affect the precious metals market. Lastly, as previously mentioned, the World Gold Council report for Q2 will be out at the end of July, reflecting whether central banks have been buying more gold, and ETF inflows and outflows, thus being able to explain trends we have seen in the price in the second quarter of 2026.
My outlook
To explain my personal outlook on gold and silver, I believe both are undervalued in this market, despite June's sharp pullback. Firstly, in regard to silver, the gold and silver ratio sitting at 68.72 sits well above the long-run historical average and well above the supply ratio of both metals (around 8:1 when mined out of the ground), and historically during periods where it's pushed towards 70, silver has performed, thus reverting back to the mean. Next, the fundamentals underneath silver are still prevalent, with the metal still running an annual supply deficit for the 6th year running, which is not being reflected in the short-term price. And lastly, in regard to gold, central bank demand has been running at roughly double the pace of the prior decade, and may continue to grow over de-dollarisation attempts and safe-haven attempts due to potential debt crises which are feared within countries with huge national debts. I believe these three factors alone are enough to drive the long-term price of gold and silver high, let alone the value of the dollar decreasing with inflation and more potential quantitative easing attempts which have been occurring frequently with economic crises.
Final comments
Even if June was a month of precious metals rallying being paused, the structural supports of both metals and a partially unresolved geopolitical conflict do not disappear with a bad month. Therefore, I remain of the view that both are still undervalued, and this will be reflected at some point in the future.
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